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2 min read

Harris had a bad night on many fronts

All indicators I was watching didn't deliver good news for Harris.
A diverse crowd of blue-clad supporters shows disappointment in a nostalgic small-town setting.

Last night, I put together some thoughts on signals I was on the lookout for this US election.

TL;DR – Everything looked bad for Harris. Trump has won.

  1. AP called Virginia for Harris at 4:42 am GMT, almost five hours after polls closed. By contrast, AP called Ohio for Trump at 2:08 am GMT. Virginia should've been an easy pick-up for Harris, and they also count quickly, so the fact that it took over two additional hours for AP to called it wasn't a good sign for Harris.
  2. Harris lost Florida by 13 points. I mentioned last night that if Harris lost by 11 points or more, that'd be bad news for her. Florida was always going to be Trump country, but such a huge margin suggests men got off the couch on Election Day and truned up for Trump.
  3. Harris lost Northampton county in Pennsylvania by 2.23 points. Given the size of the population in Pennsylvania with Puerto Rican descent, I really thought the "island of garbage" stunt would mobilise them. However, Puerto Ricans either weren't bothered that much or still didn't feel incensed to vote for Harris.
  4. Marginal Biden pick-ups in 2020 that Harris lost or is losing:
    1. Harris lost Baldwin, Georgia by 2.22 points.
    2. Harris lost Bucks, Pennsylvania by 1.66 points
    3. As of right now, Harris has a lead of only 1.60 points in Maricopa, Arizona. This is too thin, and even if she wins Maricopa it might not be enough to carry the state.
    4. As of right now, Harris is losing Washoe, Nevada by 2.26 points.
  5. The Economist had an interesting tally going that showed the swing from 2020 for key demographics. Almost everyone swinged away from the Democrats.

Also, Maine voted to keep their existing flag. Bad news all round 😞

It is 9:30am GMT on Wed, 6 Nov. Trump's picked up 267 electoral votes already. Even if by some cosmic chance Harris picked up every other mainland state, Alaska has the three electoral votes Trump needs. Alaska has only voted for a Democrat once in its entire history.

Trump will be president. Here we go again.