What I'm watching out for on Election Night

Below I list a few of the signals I'm watching for tonight as the US goes to the polls in what I think is the most consequential election in recent history with perhaps the largest tail risk in certainly my lifetime.

I wrote this quickly and mostly to get my thoughts in order. A lot of the below is a mix of things from here and here, and also brain farts of my own.

Virginia and Ohio

If Virginia isn't called for Harris soon after the polls close (midnight GMT) → good for Trump

If Ohio isn't called for Trump soon after the polls close (12:30 am GMT) → good for Harris

How badly does Harris lose Florida?

Harris is unlikely to pick up Florida, so it's more about how hard her landing will be. Florida might get called soon after polls close at 1 am GMT.

If Harris loses by seven points or less → good news

If Harris loses by 11 points or more → less good

Speedy Michigan

If Trump picks up Michigan, it'll be very hard for Harris to come out on top. Michigan may be one of the fastest states to complete the count (they started before election day with early votes), so we might get a result soon after polls close at 1 am GMT.

Curious counties

At the last election, some counties were won comfortably by the candidate that also carried that county's state, despite the margin by which they won the state being much smaller.

For example, Trump won Cabarrus in North Carolina by 9.45 points over Biden. Not too shabby. However, Trump only won the state by 1.35 points over Biden. This means that if he performs particularly badly in Cabarrus this election, that might spell out bad news for the statewide result. In fact, winning Cabarrus by anything less than 8.10 points over Harris would be bad news for Trump.

Below I tabulate some key counties and the minimum either Harris or Trump needs.

I'm also keeping a big eye on Northampton County, Pennsylvania. The county is 16% Hispanic, and most voters are Puerto Rican. Biden won here in 2020 by 0.72 points, so if Harris is pulling bigger numbers then we know the "island of garbage" stuff did some damage.

Do the "prediction" markets freak out?

I think the fact that Polymarket has Trump's odds at above 60% is laughable. The smart people with money in these markets will wait to sell until the last possible moment. If it's looking good for Harris, we'll see a fire sale Trump's odds on those markets will plummet.

Will Maine get a new flag?

One of Maine's five ballot initiatives is to decide whether to replace its existing flag with a slightly stylised version of its original flag.

An Act to Restore the Former State of Maine Flag, Do you favor making the former state flag, replaced as the official flag of the State in 1909 and commonly known as the Pine Tree Flag, the official flag of the State?

It's nice to see Mainers keeping themselves grounded with a good ol' vexillological debate.